Blue Jays @ Braves
2026-06-04Win probability
TOR
21.1%
ATL
66.1%
Extras needed
12.9%
Expected runs
TOR expected
2.57
ATL expected
4.12
Total expected
6.69
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–ATL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 4 | 5.06% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.79% |
| 2 – 5 | 4.41% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.34% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.21% |
| 1 – 3 | 3.73% |
| 1 – 4 | 3.67% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.58% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| 6.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 7.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 8.5 | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| 9.5 | 14.3% | 85.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →