How the model did in 2026
Every prediction below was published before first pitch and never edited afterwards. This is the full, unfiltered record.
Winners called
485 / 893
Hit rate
54.3%
Days published
67
Best day
7/8
A park-adjusted Poisson model that only knows runs scored and runs allowed
lands a little above a coin flip — which is roughly what the home-field
baseline alone will get you. Beating that meaningfully needs starting
pitchers and lineups in the model, and that's the 2027 project.
The videos are still up
Pitcher compilations and daily predicted-vs-actual recaps from the 2026 season.
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