Padres @ Phillies
2026-06-04Win probability
SD
53.9%
PHI
33.1%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
SD expected
4.57
PHI expected
3.82
Total expected
8.39
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.89% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.58% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.47% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.39% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.19% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.10% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.96% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.95% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| 6.5 | 74.2% | 25.7% |
| 7.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 8.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 9.5 | 33.8% | 66.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →