Pirates @ Astros
2026-06-04Win probability
PIT
64.1%
HOU
24.6%
Extras needed
11.3%
Expected runs
PIT expected
5.82
HOU expected
4.28
Total expected
10.09
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–HOU) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.51% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.30% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.00% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.89% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.72% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.69% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.68% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.60% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 6.5 | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 7.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| 8.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 9.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →