Athletics @ Cubs
2026-06-04Win probability
OAK
44.9%
CHC
39.4%
Extras needed
15.7%
Expected runs
OAK expected
3.62
CHC expected
3.41
Total expected
7.03
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (OAK–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.74% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.15% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.10% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.03% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.92% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.60% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.46% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.36% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 9.7% | 90.3% |
| 6.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 7.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 8.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 9.5 | 16.9% | 83.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →