MLB Sims

Dodgers @ D-backs

2026-06-04

Chase Field · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-06-05T01:40:00Z

Win probability

LAD
74.6%
ARI
15.6%
Extras needed
9.8%

Expected runs

LAD expected
5.51
ARI expected
3.06
Total expected
8.57
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–ARI)Probability
4 – 23.78%
4 – 33.74%
5 – 33.56%
6 – 33.52%
5 – 23.50%
6 – 23.22%
7 – 22.77%
3 – 22.63%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 24.9% 75.1%
6.5 73.8% 26.2%
7.5 61.2% 38.8%
8.5 48.1% 51.8%
9.5 35.6% 64.4%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →