Royals @ Twins
2026-06-04Win probability
KC
21.1%
MIN
67.5%
Extras needed
11.4%
Expected runs
KC expected
3.23
MIN expected
5.02
Total expected
8.25
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (KC–MIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 4.17% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.89% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.76% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.47% |
| 2 – 6 | 3.21% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.19% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.16% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.04% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| 6.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 7.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 8.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 9.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →