Indians @ Yankees
2026-06-04Win probability
CLE
28.3%
NYY
59.7%
Extras needed
12.0%
Expected runs
CLE expected
4.04
NYY expected
5.32
Total expected
9.36
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.20% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.17% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.14% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.12% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.04% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.90% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.81% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.70% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 6.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 7.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 8.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 9.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →