Orioles @ Red Sox
2026-06-04Win probability
BAL
31.1%
BOS
54.9%
Extras needed
14.0%
Expected runs
BAL expected
3.50
BOS expected
4.43
Total expected
7.93
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.23% |
| 4 – 4 | 4.08% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.81% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.69% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.63% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.38% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.11% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.11% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| 6.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 7.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 8.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 9.5 | 27.3% | 72.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →