MLB Sims

Blue Jays @ Braves

2026-06-03

Truist Park · park factor 1.00 · first pitch 2026-06-03T23:15:00Z

Win probability

TOR
22.8%
ATL
63.0%
Extras needed
14.2%

Expected runs

TOR expected
2.59
ATL expected
3.94
Total expected
6.53
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (TOR–ATL)Probability
2 – 35.01%
2 – 44.90%
3 – 34.60%
3 – 44.44%
1 – 43.87%
2 – 53.58%
2 – 23.44%
1 – 33.39%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 6.7% 93.3%
6.5 47.7% 52.3%
7.5 33.6% 66.4%
8.5 21.5% 78.5%
9.5 12.4% 87.6%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →