Blue Jays @ Braves
2026-06-03Win probability
TOR
22.8%
ATL
63.0%
Extras needed
14.2%
Expected runs
TOR expected
2.59
ATL expected
3.94
Total expected
6.53
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–ATL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 3 | 5.01% |
| 2 – 4 | 4.90% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.60% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.44% |
| 1 – 4 | 3.87% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.58% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.44% |
| 1 – 3 | 3.39% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 6.7% | 93.3% |
| 6.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 7.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 8.5 | 21.5% | 78.5% |
| 9.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →