MLB Sims

Rangers @ Cardinals

2026-06-03

Busch Stadium · park factor 0.96 · first pitch 2026-06-03T23:45:00Z

Win probability

TEX
58.4%
STL
28.9%
Extras needed
12.7%

Expected runs

TEX expected
4.73
STL expected
3.65
Total expected
8.38
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (TEX–STL)Probability
4 – 34.01%
5 – 33.61%
5 – 43.48%
4 – 43.36%
4 – 23.35%
3 – 33.13%
5 – 23.05%
3 – 42.96%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 22.8% 77.2%
6.5 73.3% 26.7%
7.5 60.1% 39.9%
8.5 46.6% 53.4%
9.5 33.7% 66.3%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →