Padres @ Phillies
2026-06-03Win probability
SD
55.5%
PHI
31.4%
Extras needed
13.1%
Expected runs
SD expected
4.76
PHI expected
3.88
Total expected
8.64
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.80% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.69% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.53% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.20% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.07% |
| 5 – 2 | 2.82% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.79% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.76% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| 6.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 7.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 8.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 9.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →