Pirates @ Astros
2026-06-03Win probability
PIT
64.9%
HOU
23.4%
Extras needed
11.8%
Expected runs
PIT expected
5.51
HOU expected
3.84
Total expected
9.35
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–HOU) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.62% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.58% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.18% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.15% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.87% |
| 5 – 2 | 2.71% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.70% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.67% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 6.5 | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| 7.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| 8.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 9.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →