MLB Sims

Mets @ Mariners

2026-06-03

T-Mobile Park · park factor 0.93 · first pitch 2026-06-03T19:40:00Z

Win probability

NYM
30.0%
SEA
54.9%
Extras needed
15.1%

Expected runs

NYM expected
2.93
SEA expected
3.80
Total expected
6.74
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 7 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (NYM–SEA)Probability
3 – 44.73%
2 – 34.69%
2 – 44.33%
3 – 34.29%
4 – 34.07%
2 – 23.95%
3 – 23.73%
2 – 53.45%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 7.8% 92.2%
6.5 51.2% 48.8%
7.5 35.3% 64.7%
8.5 22.8% 77.2%
9.5 13.9% 86.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →