Marlins @ Nationals
2026-06-03Win probability
MIA
35.8%
WSH
52.9%
Extras needed
11.3%
Expected runs
MIA expected
5.72
WSH expected
6.53
Total expected
12.25
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 12 / 17
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 6 | 2.56% |
| 6 – 7 | 2.56% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.50% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.43% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.42% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.21% |
| 7 – 6 | 2.10% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.03% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 6.5 | 95.5% | 4.5% |
| 7.5 | 91.3% | 8.7% |
| 8.5 | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| 9.5 | 77.5% | 22.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →