MLB Sims

Dodgers @ D-backs

2026-06-03

Chase Field · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-06-04T01:40:00Z

Win probability

LAD
71.2%
ARI
18.1%
Extras needed
10.7%

Expected runs

LAD expected
5.36
ARI expected
3.26
Total expected
8.62
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–ARI)Probability
5 – 34.02%
5 – 23.92%
4 – 33.78%
6 – 33.32%
4 – 23.30%
5 – 43.16%
6 – 23.13%
4 – 42.91%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 24.8% 75.2%
6.5 76.1% 23.9%
7.5 62.6% 37.4%
8.5 49.1% 50.9%
9.5 36.2% 63.8%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →