Royals @ Reds
2026-06-03Win probability
KC
32.5%
CIN
53.9%
Extras needed
13.6%
Expected runs
KC expected
3.96
CIN expected
4.78
Total expected
8.74
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (KC–CIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.79% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.75% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.67% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.30% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.20% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.81% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.80% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.77% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| 6.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 7.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 8.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 9.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →