MLB Sims

Tigers @ Rays

2026-06-03

Tropicana Field · park factor 0.97 · first pitch 2026-06-03T17:10:00Z

Win probability

DET
26.1%
TB
61.6%
Extras needed
12.2%

Expected runs

DET expected
3.77
TB expected
5.17
Total expected
8.93
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (DET–TB)Probability
3 – 53.71%
3 – 43.41%
4 – 53.25%
4 – 43.17%
3 – 63.03%
3 – 32.96%
2 – 42.83%
4 – 62.70%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 29.2% 70.8%
6.5 79.2% 20.8%
7.5 67.9% 32.1%
8.5 54.6% 45.4%
9.5 41.4% 58.6%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →