Orioles @ Red Sox
2026-06-03Win probability
BAL
36.5%
BOS
50.1%
Extras needed
13.4%
Expected runs
BAL expected
3.69
BOS expected
4.16
Total expected
7.85
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.07% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.94% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.78% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.64% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.50% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.34% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.33% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.09% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 17.0% | 83.0% |
| 6.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 7.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 8.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 9.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →