Padres @ Phillies
2026-06-02Win probability
SD
56.3%
PHI
30.5%
Extras needed
13.2%
Expected runs
SD expected
4.97
PHI expected
3.95
Total expected
8.93
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.65% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.35% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.34% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.28% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.99% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.93% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.91% |
| 5 – 2 | 2.91% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| 6.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| 7.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 8.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 9.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →