Pirates @ Astros
2026-06-02Win probability
PIT
62.1%
HOU
25.6%
Extras needed
12.3%
Expected runs
PIT expected
5.13
HOU expected
3.71
Total expected
8.84
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–HOU) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.61% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.45% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.41% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.30% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.14% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.11% |
| 5 – 2 | 2.84% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 6.5 | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 7.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 8.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 9.5 | 39.6% | 60.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →