MLB Sims

Mets @ Mariners

2026-06-02

T-Mobile Park · park factor 0.93 · first pitch 2026-06-03T01:40:00Z

Win probability

NYM
33.9%
SEA
50.3%
Extras needed
15.9%

Expected runs

NYM expected
2.98
SEA expected
3.57
Total expected
6.55
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (NYM–SEA)Probability
3 – 44.78%
3 – 34.71%
2 – 34.49%
2 – 24.45%
2 – 44.29%
3 – 24.26%
4 – 33.81%
4 – 43.20%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 6.5% 93.5%
6.5 48.1% 51.9%
7.5 32.3% 67.7%
8.5 20.4% 79.6%
9.5 12.1% 87.9%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →