Mets @ Mariners
2026-06-02Win probability
NYM
33.9%
SEA
50.3%
Extras needed
15.9%
Expected runs
NYM expected
2.98
SEA expected
3.57
Total expected
6.55
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.78% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.71% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.49% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.45% |
| 2 – 4 | 4.29% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.26% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.81% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.20% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 6.5% | 93.5% |
| 6.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 7.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 8.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| 9.5 | 12.1% | 87.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →