Marlins @ Nationals
2026-06-02Win probability
MIA
31.9%
WSH
57.4%
Extras needed
10.7%
Expected runs
MIA expected
5.57
WSH expected
6.72
Total expected
12.29
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 12 / 17
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 7 | 2.70% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.50% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.50% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.35% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.32% |
| 5 – 8 | 2.24% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.21% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.16% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 6.5 | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| 7.5 | 91.9% | 8.1% |
| 8.5 | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| 9.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →