MLB Sims

Dodgers @ D-backs

2026-06-02

Chase Field · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-06-03T01:40:00Z

Win probability

LAD
70.3%
ARI
18.8%
Extras needed
10.9%

Expected runs

LAD expected
5.28
ARI expected
3.18
Total expected
8.46
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–ARI)Probability
5 – 23.99%
4 – 23.58%
4 – 33.48%
6 – 33.45%
5 – 33.44%
6 – 23.32%
3 – 33.07%
5 – 42.97%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 22.8% 77.2%
6.5 73.3% 26.7%
7.5 60.3% 39.7%
8.5 46.8% 53.2%
9.5 33.7% 66.3%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →