MLB Sims

Royals @ Reds

2026-06-02

Great American Ball Park · park factor 1.05 · first pitch 2026-06-02T23:10:00Z

Win probability

KC
33.0%
CIN
53.6%
Extras needed
13.4%

Expected runs

KC expected
4.04
CIN expected
4.82
Total expected
8.86
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (KC–CIN)Probability
4 – 53.79%
3 – 43.61%
4 – 43.46%
4 – 33.06%
3 – 33.01%
3 – 52.98%
5 – 42.97%
5 – 52.81%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 27.6% 72.4%
6.5 78.1% 21.9%
7.5 65.9% 34.1%
8.5 53.1% 46.9%
9.5 39.5% 60.5%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →