MLB Sims

Tigers @ Rays

2026-06-02

Tropicana Field · park factor 0.97 · first pitch 2026-06-02T22:40:00Z

Win probability

DET
20.6%
TB
68.6%
Extras needed
10.8%

Expected runs

DET expected
3.55
TB expected
5.50
Total expected
9.05
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (DET–TB)Probability
3 – 53.84%
3 – 43.55%
3 – 63.37%
4 – 63.30%
4 – 53.25%
2 – 62.89%
3 – 72.79%
2 – 52.77%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 28.9% 71.1%
6.5 79.5% 20.5%
7.5 68.1% 31.9%
8.5 55.4% 44.6%
9.5 41.5% 58.5%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →