Orioles @ Red Sox
2026-06-02Win probability
BAL
35.4%
BOS
50.8%
Extras needed
13.8%
Expected runs
BAL expected
3.71
BOS expected
4.31
Total expected
8.02
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.96% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.70% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.56% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.47% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.44% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.39% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.04% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.99% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| 6.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 7.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 8.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 9.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →