MLB Sims

Rangers @ Cardinals

2026-06-01

Busch Stadium · park factor 0.96 · first pitch 2026-06-01T23:45:00Z

Win probability

TEX
55.9%
STL
31.0%
Extras needed
13.1%

Expected runs

TEX expected
4.77
STL expected
3.84
Total expected
8.61
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (TEX–STL)Probability
4 – 33.68%
5 – 33.66%
4 – 43.43%
5 – 43.38%
3 – 33.10%
4 – 23.08%
3 – 42.98%
6 – 32.89%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 24.9% 75.2%
6.5 75.9% 24.1%
7.5 63.2% 36.8%
8.5 49.4% 50.6%
9.5 36.3% 63.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →