Mets @ Mariners
2026-06-01Win probability
NYM
33.0%
SEA
51.4%
Extras needed
15.6%
Expected runs
NYM expected
3.07
SEA expected
3.65
Total expected
6.72
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.80% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.56% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.14% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.07% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.99% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.67% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.65% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.34% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 8.1% | 91.9% |
| 6.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 7.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| 8.5 | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| 9.5 | 14.2% | 85.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →