MLB Sims

Mets @ Mariners

2026-06-01

T-Mobile Park · park factor 0.93 · first pitch 2026-06-02T01:40:00Z

Win probability

NYM
33.0%
SEA
51.4%
Extras needed
15.6%

Expected runs

NYM expected
3.07
SEA expected
3.65
Total expected
6.72
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (NYM–SEA)Probability
3 – 34.80%
2 – 34.56%
3 – 44.14%
2 – 24.07%
2 – 43.99%
4 – 33.67%
3 – 23.65%
2 – 53.34%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 8.1% 91.9%
6.5 50.9% 49.1%
7.5 35.8% 64.2%
8.5 23.8% 76.2%
9.5 14.2% 85.8%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →