Marlins @ Nationals
2026-06-01Win probability
MIA
27.9%
WSH
62.2%
Extras needed
10.0%
Expected runs
MIA expected
5.40
WSH expected
6.96
Total expected
12.36
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 12 / 17
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 7 | 2.54% |
| 5 – 8 | 2.48% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.48% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.47% |
| 6 – 7 | 2.39% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.34% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.25% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.24% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 6.5 | 96.5% | 3.5% |
| 7.5 | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| 8.5 | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 9.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →