MLB Sims

Dodgers @ D-backs

2026-06-01

Chase Field · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-06-02T01:40:00Z

Win probability

LAD
74.1%
ARI
15.8%
Extras needed
10.1%

Expected runs

LAD expected
5.60
ARI expected
3.17
Total expected
8.77
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–ARI)Probability
5 – 34.17%
5 – 23.70%
6 – 23.62%
6 – 33.30%
5 – 43.04%
4 – 33.04%
7 – 32.95%
7 – 22.84%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 26.2% 73.8%
6.5 77.8% 22.2%
7.5 65.7% 34.3%
8.5 51.2% 48.8%
9.5 38.0% 62.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →