MLB Sims

Royals @ Reds

2026-06-01

Great American Ball Park · park factor 1.05 · first pitch 2026-06-01T23:10:00Z

Win probability

KC
26.1%
CIN
61.5%
Extras needed
12.4%

Expected runs

KC expected
3.71
CIN expected
5.03
Total expected
8.74
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (KC–CIN)Probability
3 – 53.71%
3 – 43.61%
4 – 53.35%
4 – 43.29%
3 – 63.18%
4 – 63.04%
2 – 42.96%
2 – 52.83%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 26.2% 73.8%
6.5 76.5% 23.5%
7.5 64.8% 35.2%
8.5 51.1% 48.9%
9.5 37.9% 62.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →