MLB Sims

Tigers @ Rays

2026-06-01

Tropicana Field · park factor 0.97 · first pitch 2026-06-01T22:40:00Z

Win probability

DET
18.9%
TB
69.8%
Extras needed
11.2%

Expected runs

DET expected
3.20
TB expected
5.22
Total expected
8.42
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (DET–TB)Probability
3 – 44.11%
2 – 53.65%
3 – 53.62%
2 – 43.60%
3 – 63.49%
2 – 63.18%
4 – 53.16%
4 – 43.07%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 22.0% 78.0%
6.5 73.4% 26.6%
7.5 59.6% 40.4%
8.5 45.9% 54.1%
9.5 33.1% 66.8%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →