Blue Jays @ Orioles
2026-05-31Win probability
TOR
37.4%
BAL
48.6%
Extras needed
14.0%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.82
BAL expected
4.24
Total expected
8.07
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.74% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.65% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.62% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.55% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.46% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.18% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 2 – 3 | 2.83% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| 6.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 7.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 8.5 | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 9.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →