Padres @ Nationals
2026-05-31Win probability
SD
55.5%
WSH
33.2%
Extras needed
11.3%
Expected runs
SD expected
6.49
WSH expected
5.46
Total expected
11.95
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 12 / 17
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 5 | 2.70% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.57% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.45% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.41% |
| 7 – 5 | 2.35% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.30% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.26% |
| 7 – 6 | 2.16% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 6.5 | 95.3% | 4.7% |
| 7.5 | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| 8.5 | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 9.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →