MLB Sims

Phillies @ Dodgers

2026-05-31

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-31T20:10:00Z

Win probability

PHI
32.3%
LAD
52.3%
Extras needed
15.3%

Expected runs

PHI expected
2.91
LAD expected
3.56
Total expected
6.48
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (PHI–LAD)Probability
2 – 35.13%
3 – 34.64%
3 – 44.43%
2 – 44.35%
3 – 24.14%
2 – 23.89%
4 – 33.46%
4 – 43.36%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 6.4% 93.6%
6.5 47.2% 52.8%
7.5 32.6% 67.4%
8.5 20.2% 79.8%
9.5 11.8% 88.2%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →