Yankees @ Athletics
2026-05-31Win probability
NYY
82.6%
OAK
10.1%
Extras needed
7.2%
Expected runs
NYY expected
6.36
OAK expected
2.97
Total expected
9.33
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 2 | 3.79% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.43% |
| 7 – 2 | 3.40% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.34% |
| 7 – 3 | 3.16% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.13% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.76% |
| 8 – 3 | 2.68% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 6.5 | 82.0% | 18.0% |
| 7.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 8.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 9.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →