Twins @ Pirates
2026-05-31Win probability
MIN
25.4%
PIT
64.2%
Extras needed
10.4%
Expected runs
MIN expected
5.15
PIT expected
6.89
Total expected
12.04
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 12 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 7 | 2.91% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.68% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.64% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.52% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.36% |
| 4 – 8 | 2.35% |
| 6 – 7 | 2.31% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.29% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 6.5 | 95.3% | 4.7% |
| 7.5 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| 8.5 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 9.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →