Marlins @ Mets
2026-05-31Win probability
MIA
32.0%
NYM
55.4%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
MIA expected
4.25
NYM expected
5.23
Total expected
9.48
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.88% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.16% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.14% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.07% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.05% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.73% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.62% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.52% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 6.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 7.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 8.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 9.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →