MLB Sims

Angels @ Rays

2026-05-31

Tropicana Field · park factor 0.97 · first pitch 2026-05-31T17:40:00Z

Win probability

LAA
27.6%
TB
61.1%
Extras needed
11.3%

Expected runs

LAA expected
4.66
TB expected
6.10
Total expected
10.76
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15

Most likely final scores

Score (LAA–TB)Probability
4 – 53.29%
4 – 62.91%
5 – 62.83%
5 – 72.72%
5 – 52.69%
4 – 42.65%
3 – 52.59%
3 – 72.58%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 50.8% 49.2%
6.5 91.8% 8.3%
7.5 84.8% 15.2%
8.5 75.2% 24.8%
9.5 63.9% 36.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →