MLB Sims

Royals @ Rangers

2026-05-31

Globe Life Field · park factor 1.01 · first pitch 2026-05-31T18:35:00Z

Win probability

KC
21.2%
TEX
64.4%
Extras needed
14.4%

Expected runs

KC expected
2.37
TEX expected
3.83
Total expected
6.20
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 9

Most likely final scores

Score (KC–TEX)Probability
2 – 35.87%
2 – 45.11%
1 – 34.66%
2 – 24.29%
1 – 44.26%
3 – 34.15%
3 – 43.90%
2 – 53.73%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 5.1% 94.9%
6.5 42.5% 57.5%
7.5 28.7% 71.3%
8.5 17.4% 82.6%
9.5 9.9% 90.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →