Cubs @ Cardinals
2026-05-31Win probability
CHC
58.2%
STL
29.7%
Extras needed
12.1%
Expected runs
CHC expected
5.40
STL expected
4.21
Total expected
9.61
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.44% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.26% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.09% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.98% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.98% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.95% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.78% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.78% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 6.5 | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 7.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 8.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 9.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →