Red Sox @ Indians
2026-05-31Win probability
BOS
44.5%
CLE
40.8%
Extras needed
14.8%
Expected runs
BOS expected
3.81
CLE expected
3.64
Total expected
7.46
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (BOS–CLE) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.28% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.18% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.01% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.86% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.82% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.74% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.72% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.04% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 13.6% | 86.5% |
| 6.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 7.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| 8.5 | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 9.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →