MLB Sims

Red Sox @ Indians

2026-05-31

Progressive Field · park factor 0.98 · first pitch 2026-05-31T17:40:00Z

Win probability

BOS
44.5%
CLE
40.8%
Extras needed
14.8%

Expected runs

BOS expected
3.81
CLE expected
3.64
Total expected
7.46
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11

Most likely final scores

Score (BOS–CLE)Probability
3 – 44.28%
4 – 34.18%
3 – 34.01%
3 – 23.86%
4 – 43.82%
4 – 23.74%
2 – 33.72%
3 – 53.04%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 13.6% 86.5%
6.5 61.7% 38.3%
7.5 46.8% 53.2%
8.5 33.0% 67.0%
9.5 22.1% 77.9%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →