Braves @ Reds
2026-05-31Win probability
ATL
82.9%
CIN
10.2%
Extras needed
6.8%
Expected runs
ATL expected
7.34
CIN expected
3.65
Total expected
10.99
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–CIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7 – 3 | 3.11% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.89% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.86% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.81% |
| 8 – 3 | 2.79% |
| 8 – 4 | 2.66% |
| 7 – 2 | 2.56% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.47% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 6.5 | 92.4% | 7.6% |
| 7.5 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| 8.5 | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 9.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →