MLB Sims

Braves @ Reds

2026-05-31

Great American Ball Park · park factor 1.05 · first pitch 2026-05-31T17:40:00Z

Win probability

ATL
82.9%
CIN
10.2%
Extras needed
6.8%

Expected runs

ATL expected
7.34
CIN expected
3.65
Total expected
10.99
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15

Most likely final scores

Score (ATL–CIN)Probability
7 – 33.11%
6 – 32.89%
7 – 42.86%
6 – 42.81%
8 – 32.79%
8 – 42.66%
7 – 22.56%
5 – 32.47%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 54.4% 45.6%
6.5 92.4% 7.6%
7.5 86.0% 14.0%
8.5 77.0% 23.0%
9.5 66.0% 34.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →