D-backs @ Mariners
2026-05-31Win probability
ARI
33.8%
SEA
52.7%
Extras needed
13.6%
Expected runs
ARI expected
3.78
SEA expected
4.50
Total expected
8.28
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.88% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.87% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.51% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.39% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.16% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.12% |
| 2 – 4 | 2.98% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.85% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| 6.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 7.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 8.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 9.5 | 32.0% | 68.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →