Blue Jays @ Orioles
2026-05-30Win probability
TOR
37.1%
BAL
48.8%
Extras needed
14.2%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.77
BAL expected
4.15
Total expected
7.92
Total — 10/median/90
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Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.12% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.84% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.67% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.60% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.57% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.46% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.32% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.06% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| 6.5 | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 7.5 | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 8.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| 9.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →