Padres @ Nationals
2026-05-30Win probability
SD
61.3%
WSH
27.7%
Extras needed
11.1%
Expected runs
SD expected
6.63
WSH expected
5.11
Total expected
11.74
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 12 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 5 | 2.69% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.64% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.60% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.50% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.49% |
| 7 – 5 | 2.40% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.25% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.23% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 6.5 | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| 7.5 | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 8.5 | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 9.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →