Phillies @ Dodgers
2026-05-30Win probability
PHI
32.0%
LAD
52.4%
Extras needed
15.6%
Expected runs
PHI expected
2.90
LAD expected
3.64
Total expected
6.53
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (PHI–LAD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 3 | 5.08% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.72% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.18% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.08% |
| 2 – 4 | 4.07% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.97% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.59% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.31% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 6.8% | 93.2% |
| 6.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 7.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 8.5 | 21.4% | 78.5% |
| 9.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →