Yankees @ Athletics
2026-05-30Win probability
NYY
85.5%
OAK
7.8%
Extras needed
6.7%
Expected runs
NYY expected
6.49
OAK expected
2.85
Total expected
9.33
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 2 | 3.71% |
| 7 – 2 | 3.67% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.64% |
| 7 – 3 | 3.36% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.35% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.25% |
| 8 – 2 | 2.82% |
| 8 – 3 | 2.81% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 6.5 | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 7.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 8.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 9.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →