Twins @ Pirates
2026-05-30Win probability
MIN
25.5%
PIT
63.8%
Extras needed
10.7%
Expected runs
MIN expected
4.85
PIT expected
6.56
Total expected
11.41
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 6 | 2.81% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.72% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.67% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.57% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.56% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.51% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.30% |
| 3 – 7 | 2.29% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 6.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| 7.5 | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| 8.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 9.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →